GlobLog - December 2005
A direct link to each entry is obtained by using the button below the entry.

10:55 - HAPPY NEW URBAN YEAR: 

10:52 - 40 MILJARDER KOSTAR PERSSON: 

Realtid.se räknar ihop kostnaden för Norrbotniabanan, kärnkraftsnedläggningen, utflyttning av myndigheter och andra dumheter.

12:44 - CAN THE LAST RUSSIAN DEMOCRAT PLEASE TURN OFF THE LIGHTS?: 

Despite global progress for democracy and freedom, some countries slip backwards. For example the Egyptian government recently jailed an opposition leader on phony charges. But even more ominous is Russia´s move towards authoritarianism.

I have written before about Putin´s liberal chief economic adviser Andrei Illarioniov as the last sign that there is at least some room for dissent left in Russia. Not any more. Illarionov just resigned in protest against a government that curtails democracy and the rule of law: "I did not sign a contract with such a state". And he continues:

00:20 - I ENJOYED SEINFELD SEASON 5, BUT THIS IS AN EVEN BETTER CHRISTMAS GIFT: 

2005 wasn´t such a bad year after all. The annual Freedom House report brings us these good news:

09:20 - DAGENS JULKLAPP: 

Eftersom det är lördag i dag så publicerar Expressen som vanligt politikpanelen. Och dagens till ära tänkte jag dela med mig av mitt svar på den julrelaterade frågan:

15:37 - MERRY CHRISTMAS: 

Now I am taking a Christmas break, and when I am back early next year I have left Timbro for a new life as a freelance free-marketeer. Since I will blog less than usual until then, you can have a look at these favourites of mine instead:

14:32 - IF I WAS A DOLLAR BILL: 



Design project from Poinko.

15:33 - LÄS MEDAN NI HAR CHANSEN: 

Bra nummer av smedjan.com som vanligt. Det ovanliga är att det är det sista.

09:29 - SO WE HAVE TO COUNT ON SHEER WILL INSTEAD: 

09:21 - JAMEN BUY NOTHING DÅ. VAD HINDRAR DIG?: 

Varför blir protesterna mot kommersialism ofta så här patetiska? För den som bara är obekväm med överdriven kommersialism i köpcentren är ett enkelt alternativ att stanna hemma och inte handla (jag gör det ofta). Det är bara den livssstilsimperialist som avskyr att andra gillar  kommersialismen som måste ställa till med kollektiva happenings och protester.

UPPDATERING 2005-12-28, 19:17: Men i just det här fallet verkar motivet ha varit mer flytande... (Tack Magnus)

14:16 - ATTAC SWEDEN VS ATTAC FRANCE (AND ATTAC SWEDEN...): 

I debated a representative for ATTAC Sweden on DI TV recently, and apart from his argument for developing country protectionism, he sounded like a free trader, who wanted bigger reforms of the CAP and to open the European market for poor countries.

This raises the question why they are a part of ATTAC, the French organisation which aggressively defends agricultural protectionism in EU and other "macro-regions" against "liberal activism". It only complains about export subsidies, but that is only because it is opposed to agricultural trade generally. A policy that would completely destroy poor countries´ opportunities to participate in the global economy.

When there is a conflict what does ATTAC Sweden chose? Protectionism. We know this because they have signed an international petition to stop the WTO negotiations, and all further liberalisation of agricultural trade, with ATTAC France as one of the initiators.

ATTAC Sweden has to make up its mind. Either they want more open EU markets, and in that case they should attack ATTAC France, rather than joining them in calls for less openness - or they are potectionists, who want to stop poor countries from competing, just like their French friends, and in that case they should stop pretending that they are not.

(Thanks to Håkan for the links.)

21:16 - TWO MEDIA RESEARCH SURPRISES: 

The first attempt to compare American outlets to lawmakers, organised by a UCLA political scientist, presents these results (thanks Michael):

18:54 - JULBIO: 

Flera personer har tipsat mig om att The Fountainhead (Pionjären), som inte är "neo-nietzschiansk", visas på Biografen Sture i Stockholm, 23 december kl 14.30.

17:42 - THE PRESIDENT WHO SAYS THAT LIBERALISM AND FREE TRADE HAS NO PUBLIC SUPPORT: 

09:14 - NÄSTA GÅNG FÅR DE SKÅLA I POMMAC: 

20:19 - OPTIMIST OF THE DAY: 

20:08 - WHY GATS DOES NOT GO FAR ENOUGH: 

19:13 - ÅRETS JULKLAPP II: 

Neo

11:17 - VARFÖR KOM ORBACK UNDAN MED DETTA SPIN?: 

Brå:s studie av invandrares brottslighet har väckt rejäl debatt, och personligen tycker jag å ena sidan att kunskap aldrig är fel, men å andra sidan har P M Nilsson rätt i att politiker ska vara mycket försiktiga med vilka generaliseringar de populariserar.

Men det märkligaste med debatten om Brå:s rapport är att integrationsminister Jens Orback har tillåtits komma undan med halvsanningar och spin. Orback pekade på att Sverige är unikt eftersom invandrarnas barn är mindre brottslig än invandrarna. Han pekar på att utlandsfödda är registrerade som misstänkta 2,5 gånger så ofta som svenskfödda, medan överrisken för ”andra generationens invandrare” bara är 2,0 (sid 63).

Vad Orback ignorerar är att den senare gruppen inte är barn till de invandrare som har 2,5 i överrisk. De är mer sannolikt barn till den grupp invandrare som studerades i Brå:s förra rapport (1985-89), och deras överrisk var blott 2,1. Med andra ord är minskningen mellan generationerna inte 0,5 utan blott 0,1 procentenheter. Knappt märkbar.

Dessutom är det inte ”unikt”. Det enda rapporten säger är att ”den generella bilden” internationellt är att brottsligheten ökar i nästa generation. Det är inte samma sak som att det gäller i alla andra länder.

Dessutom pekar Brå på att det finns äldre amerikanska studier som visar att invandrare begår mindre brott än inrikes födda, eftersom de är mer måna om att anpassa sig till samhällets normer (sid 16). Om det stämmer kan ökad brottslighet i nästa generation helt enkelt vara ett tecken på att de ungas brottslighet är mer lik samhället i övrigt, medan de svenska siffrorna tyder på en allt större överrepresentation bland invandrare som nästan kvarstår oförändrat bland barnen. Och i så fall är Sverige unikt på ett betydligt obehagligare vis.

Varför har ingen journalist frågat Orback om detta?

22:48 - PROTECTIONISTS OF THE WORLD: CONGRATULATIONS: 

The watered down WTO deal in Hong Kong is a reason to celebrate - for France, José Bové, the Duke of Marlburough, agri-businesses, and protectionists in all countries. Economic rationality and opportunities for poor people around the world is put on hold. Again.

And yet, when I think of the problems the whole WTO system and the dispute settlement mechanism would have run into if the 149 member countries didn´t at least pretend that they were making some progress, I can´t help but paraphrasing Dick Brandon´s words about documentation:

A WTO agreement is like sex; when it´s good, it´s very, very good, and when it´s bad, it´s better than nothing...

10:11 - BORGERLIGA BIDRAGSANHÄNGARE: 

11:22 - THE US CORRECTS ITS ERRORS: 

When the left rightly complained about the Patriot Act and the use of torture against terrorist suspects, they didn´t just oppose to it on principle, like we liberals and libertarians did. Many in the left saw it as a proof that the whole American system was corrupt and authoritarian. Now that the expiring provisions of the Patriot Act has been rejected in the Senate, and when Bush signs a ban on torture, we are waiting for these leftists to say that this shows the strength of America´s system of open debate, division of powers and checks and balances.

UPDATE 2005-12-22 14:52: I celebrated prematurely. Now the Senate has extended the act six months. (Thanks Mikael)

12:49 - THE PROTECTIONISTS ARE EXPOSED: 

Fredrik Erixon examines the protectionists´ metaphors:

12:11 - ON EXPORTS, POOR COUNTRIES ARE THEIR OWN WORST ENEMY: 

In New York Times today, Tim Harford, the sharp author of the praised The Undercover Economist (which I will read soon), points out that the most important thing for developing countries´ opportunities is their own trade policies:

11:48 - ÅRETS JULKLAPP: 



Från Sheriffbilen.

00:18 - FOLIEHATT PÅ!: 

Jodå, detta är värt ett gott skratt, men var så säkra - om tekniken hade funnits hade viljan knappast saknats hos Bodström och hans EU-kolleger.

23:02 - THE POWER OF PURPLE FINGERS: 

It looks like the turnout in the Iraqi election could be as high as 70 percent, even though voters know that they risk their lives. How many Western countries would have half of that turnout if voters ran half that risk of being mugged when they walk out the door?

It also seems like democracy is a way to divide the insurgency, when Iraqi insurgents actually decide to protect voters from foreign jihadists.

21:18 - HELLRE JAMES BOND ÄN VARGTASS: 

Magnus mailar mig ett mycket övertygande svar på Tomas kritik om kapitalismens brist på värdiga slut:

14:06 - DEMONSTRATORS FOR FREE TRADE: 

         

The freedom to trade coalition (F2T), with participants from all continents, today staged a peaceful protest in Hong Kong where they were breaking chains and tearing down walls, as a symbol of all the barriers and tariffs that has to be torn down.
One of the demonstrators, Andrew Shuen from Hong Kong, commented:

13:48 - WTO REACHES AN AGREEMENT: 

You know I was a pessimist about the outcome of the WTO negotiations. But now the countries have actually reached an agreement.

I just got the press release.

Are you ready for the news?

The WTO´s Sixth Ministerial Conference in Hong Kong has just agreed:

The South Pacific island of Tonga (population: 112 000) is welcomed as the WTO´s 150th member.

Well, let´s not be too sarcastic. Let´s celebrate a bit instead. Because I am not sure we´ll get more reasons to celebrate this meeting.

00:24 - KLART ORDFÖRANDEN/PARTILEDAREN/VD:N SKA HA NY DISMASKIN!: 

Det är inte den typ av korruption som mäts av Transparency International, men det är likt förbaskat korruption. Johan Ingerö berättar om sin närkamp med den svenska folkrörelse- och föreningsrådskorruptionen.

19:00 - WHO OPPOSE GLOBALIZATION?: 

The protesters against the WTO and free trade claim to speak for "the people", especially for the world´s poor. But are the people on the same side as they are?

According to the biggest survey available, they are not. In 2003, the Pew Global Attitudes Project published a survey of 44 countries which showed that people in most countries thought that globalisation was good for them and their countries. Even in France, globalisation was more popular than the anti-globalisation movement (by 16 percentage points).

But even more interesting is the geographical breakdown. Take a look at the numbers:

16:45 - AKTUELLT AND ITS EXPERTS: 

Recently I criticised how Swedish television report from the US. Could it be that they just aren´t very good at spotting credible sources? I missed this when I was away, but Stockholm Spectator writes that on November 24, Aktuellt reported on the secret CIA planes by using a source (Wayne Madsen) who has some other interesting theories:

15:12 - THE HECKSCHER-OLIN TRADE MODEL WITH PINK HAIR: 

- Have you read the Heckscher-Olin theory?

- No, but I´ve played the game.

(via Techne)

14:47 - DAGENS MEST SPÄNNANDE INVÄNDNING: 

Jag trodde att jag hade hört alla argument mot fria marknader. Men Tomas mailar mig en intressant kritisk synpunkt, som jag aldrig hört förr: Bristen på värdiga slut. Och jag måste medge att han nog har en poäng där någonstans:

13:00 - HARALD HÅRFAGER MEMORIAL TROPHY: 

Jag blev i och för sig lycklig även över Fisher Memorial Award och Hayekpriset. Men äntligen får jag ett erkännande för det som verkligen räknas. Hillary hade rätt.

11:35 - FREE TRADE FOR BETTER HEALTH:  

Philip Stevens has just published an IPN report (pdf) about the strong relation between trade/wealth and health. If developing countries had grown by 1.5 percentage points more in the 1980s, half a million infant deaths would have been averted. Stevens´ conclusion is that anybody that fights against free trade also destroy the opportunity for millions to live longer, healthier lives:

11:37 - WE WERE WRONG ABOUT CHINA: 

Actual GDP is even higher than we thought, perhaps 20 percent higher.

09:35 - NEW CAREER: 



Today I start a new career as a columnist in Dagens Industri, the biggest business paper in the Nordic countries. Every second tuesday I will be giving my perspective on things in this morning paper, which has the best national coverge in Sweden. My first column is about why cultures must face competition and change - exemplifying with Christmas (subscription required).

23:47 - HOW THEY TURN US ALL INTO LOSERS: 

Picture this. You walk into a restaurant and the waiter hands you the menu. But there is something wrong. The menu offers you too many choices and the prices are very low. You can see that people at the other tables chose from a menu with far fewer choices at much higher costs. And you demand that the waiter restricts your choices as well, and increases your prices, unless and until all the other visitors at the restaurant also accept more freedom of choice and lower prices.

What do you think the waiter would say? That you are insane? I don’t think so. I think that he would ask if you are a top trade negotiator.

Because that’s how the world’s countries negotiate at the WTO meeting that culminates now in Hong Kong. The countries have completely forgotten the point of multilateral negotiations, which is to get the help from foreigners to open our own markets. The biggest benefit from free trade is that it gives our consumers more choice and lower prices, and makes our economy more efficient by more competition and specialisation.

Total free trade in agriculture and abolished subsidies would save the OECD countries almost $760 million a day (pdf), and make it possible to use resources in sectors where we are more efficient, rather than using it to produce sugar three times as expensive as the sugar we could buy from others. And developing countries would also benefit the most from their own agricultural liberalisation – about 70-85 percent of the gain according to a recent FAO study.

And yet, rich and poor countries refuse to liberalise until others do more, first. They consider the right to hurt their own economy and restrict the freedom of their own people as a precious right, which they will only give up if the others give it up even more.

This bizarre mercantilist logic, that was proved wrong 200 years ago, has sadly been re-created by NGOs like Oxfam who wisely demand that rich countries liberalise, but think of it as a concession to poor countries, and also want to stop poor countries from liberalising, because they think it would be a concession to the rich countries. I used to welcome Oxfam´s involvement in the trade debate, but I am sad to admit that I now see that they have contributed effectively to undermining the necessary understanding that trade is not a zero-sum game.

And this is why Hong Kong will be the third of the four latest WTO meetings that ends in an embarrassing fiasco. Chirac will have the last laugh.

20:46 - BEKÄMPA PATERNALISMEN: 

Många har tyckt att det är inkonsekvent att Sverige förbjuder proffsboxning när andra kampsporter är tillåtna. Tyvärr blir slutsatsen i ett riskaversivt samhälle som det svenska att även föreslå förbud mot kampsporter som de tycker ser otäcka ut, trots att ridning och ishockey förmodligen är betydligt farligare.

Eftersom det är utpräglade minoritetssporter som nu hotas så kommer inte folkrörelse-Sverige att träda upp till deras försvar. Så det måste bli ditt och mitt ansvar.

Protestera här!

12:38 - TRAGIC FIGURES FOR THE WORLD: 

Rudolph Rummel just revised his figures for democide upwards drastically. In the light of new information of the horrors of Mao and of European colonialism, he estimates the number of people who have been murdered by the government in the 20th century is something like 262 million (war excluded).

Rummel writes:

12:08 - DEPRESSING FIGURES FROM EU: 

Enough talk of how the new EU countries contribute to the British rebate, the problem is the Aristocracy subsidy - CAP. According to a fascinating CEPS study by Richard Baldwin (pdf), 11 000 of the 232 000 euro Queen Elisabeth receives in agricultural subsidies every year are taken from the newcomers. And the new members pay €6 000 to Prince Charles, €12 000 to the Duke of Westminster and €14 000 to the Duke of Marlburough.

As Baldwin concludes:

11:52 - ENCOURAGING FIGURES FROM IRAQ: 

Despite the American mistakes in Iraq, and despite the brutal insurgency, an Oxford International survey show that an overwhelming majority of Iraqis (71%) are satisfied with their lives, and 61 percent think the Iraqi government is doing a good job. The international focus on the depressing news from the Sunni triangle has probably blinded us to positive developments in the country as a whole. (via BBC)

17:58 - MÅNGFALD I MEDIERNA: 

17:19 - YOU & BEAUTY: 

Friends of mine are doing a scientific study of beauty. So if you want to evaluate some photos of faces anonomously (and participate in a lottery with a 200€ prize), take the test here. Write NORBERG as your city of residence, to clairfy that you heard about the study at this blog.

Deadline on Tuesday.

14:25 - NOT A STABLE SOCIETY REALLY: 

Chinese authorities have admitted that at least three people were killed after clashes with police in Guangdon province, after 300 villagers had protested violently against confiscation of their land for a power plant.

It comes as no surprise. According to official reports, there were 160 major incidents of unrest and violent protests every day in China in 2003. This shows why you can´t create political stability without democracy, free press and rule of law. When the powerful abuse, demand bribes or steal land, people have no way to protest peacefully, and they rarely win if they go to the courts. As long as the legal and political system isn´t opened up, the only possible protest is a riot.

12:07 - DAGENS OMVÄNDELSE: 

15:55 - EN DEFENSA IN SPANISH: 

After just having returned from China and India, where I presented local translations of my globalisation book, I found the beautiful Spanish translation on my desk, En Defensa del Capitalismo Global (Unión Editorial, 2005).

I find it difficult to keep the record, but I think this is the 14th translation, and when all are published, there will be 22 versions.

11:46 - I AM BREAKING THE LAW TO PROTECT THE RULE OF LAW: 

                                            

Today I am breaking the law, by giving 1 000 SEK to Ahmed Yusuf for a lecture in Rinkeby.

The Swedish citizen Ahmed Yusuf had all his assets frozen after September 11, 2001, when his organisation Al Barakaat International, which lets Somalis abroad send money back home, was accused by the Bush administration of having links with terrorism. The United Nations´ security council decided on sanctions, and the European Commission incorporated it into EU law.

The only problem is that Ahmed Yusuf has not been told what he is accused of and no proof has been presented. Neither the police nor the FBI, think there is a link between Al Barakaat and terrorism any more. The case is closed in the US. I don´t know if there is truth in the accusations, I only know that if so, he should be tried, if not, the sanctions must be lifted.

But rule of law has been the first victim in the war on terror. Ahmed Yusuf stays on the list until he has somehow proven that he is not guilty. And Swedish and European authorities have not acted against it. So the sanctions remain in place, four years after they were implemented, and he is not allowed to do business and no one is allowed to employ him.

In such a Kafka world, citizens have to act. And that is why I am breaking the law today, together with 49 other Swedish authors, journalists and intellectuals. Read our article in Aftonbladet.

17:00 - MORE MIRACLE THAN MYTH: 

"The miracle is a myth", Swedish radio news just said about China, referring to a trade union report which warns us of buying goods from China. And it says it´s a myth because more than 200 million Chinese are still extremely poor.

But what they don´t report is that the number has fallen dramatically. Between 1981 and 2001, the proportion in extreme poverty in China was reduced from 64 to 17 percent, according to the World Bank surveys (pdf).

It´s a good thing that trade unions fight for the freedom for Chinese to organise, but they lose their credibility when they deny the development that has happened.

16:37 - CAP - THE RICH GET RICHER: 

I returned from Asia only to go to the heart of EU: Brussels. Here I talk about - you guessed it - globalisation and the WTO. It looks like the EU is going to ruin the trade round by refusing to liberalise agriculture seriously. So who is so important to protect that they want to destroy opportunities around the world?

The extremely useful web site farmsubsidy.org shows the real beneficiaries of the CAP. In all countries, it is big businesses like Nestle, Cadbury, Arla and people like Queen Elisabeth and Prince Charles. Not really the typical family farm.

The truth is so inconvenient that many countries, including France, refuse to release the information. It would destroy the rhetoric about saving the "small farmer". According to Financial Times today, more than half of France´s payments go to the biggest 10 percent of agribusinesses and farmers. The smallest 76 percent get less than 20 percent.

So what happens next at the WTO? Read Fredrik Erixon´s blog.

16:01 - AN INDIAN PROBLEM: 

Tim Harford has an interesting comment on my China vs India post on the PSD Blog. Apparently, the World Banks´ Doing Business survey shows that India´s labour market is actually more free than China´s, even though it´s more difficult to start a business and export goods.

I would just add something that I don´t think is captured by these figures: In India, about 670 industries are completely reserved for very small companies, which means that the economy lose the benefits of scale, don´t get foreign investments and are unable to compete globally. In 2001, the average Indian clothing company had only 50 machines, compared to 500 in the typical Chinese plant. The same problem exists in India´s agriculture, where only farmers and their children are allowed to own land, so outsiders can´t buy farm land and introduce modern and efficient technology.

Small might be beautiful, but it also creates poverty.

12:45 - OH YES, INFRASTRUCTURE AS WELL: 

It has been pointed out to me that I forgot to mention infrastructure in my India vs China post. Of course. That was so obvious that I forgot to mention it. On the Indian highways we made 40 kilometers/hour when we were lucky. In China that is called a traffic jam.

Now they are investing more in this, but it´s not about money as such, the problem is the lack of accountability and incentives. Indian bureaucrats keep their jobs no matter if they spend the resources on physical and social infrastructure or on themselves. This is a serious problem with the schools. Unionised teachers keep their well-paid jobs even if they are bad, abuse the children or don´t even bother to turn up. That´s one of the reasons why India´s illiteracy rate is absurdly high - 40 percent. As many Indians I met said, India desperately needs a school voucher system, so that the money follows the pupils, not the teachers.

08:45 - PERSSON LJUGER FÖR RIKSDAGEN: 

Hur ber man om ursäkt sterilt, formellt, utan att mena det? Genom att säga att man redan har gjort det så att hela diskussionen därmed kan förpassas till historien. I riksdagen i torsdags sade Göran Persson:

08:34 - TRYGGA NYHETER: 

Nu när jag har lämnat Kina för ett par föreläsningar i Belgien, kan jag ändå dröja kvar i den känslan genom att se på SVT/Faktums lysande "Kina TV". Och där kan man också läsa ett välgörande angrepp på förkastliga demagoger som jag själv och andra på den folkfientliga tankesmedjan Timbro.

20:20 - CHINA VS INDIA: 

In India everybody look at China, and wonder why they have better growth rates, and in China almost everybody look at India, and fear strong future competition from them. An interesting difference is that most Indians I talk to believe that in the long run, India will win, whereas most Chinese I meet, including supporters of the regime, think that China can´t continue like this, and that other developing countries will take global market shares as they shape up and as Chinese wages increase.

China has an advantage since it begun liberalising its economy 13 years before India. But China´s hidden weakness is the massive and often centrally planned investments, which are often less productive than the Indian investments. In the long run, that´s not going to work without more open competition, creativity and entrepreneurship. India´s hidden strength is that the country is already extremely entrepreneurial - but in the informal sector. An Indian friend mentions that most of the cars we see on the roads, and many computers in the offices, are assembled in small, informal factories, outside the law, to avoid the many regulations and taxes that still curbs the Indian economy.

Imagine what the Indians could do if all that energy was legalised. In that case the Chinese have good reasons to see them as serious competitors.

18:36 - THIS MUCH PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN THE WTO NEGOTIATIONS WHILE I HAVE BEEN IN ASIA: 

17:57 - THOUGHTS IN CHINA: 

Here in Beijing and in Shanghai it´s impossible not to be impressed by the new wealth of China. Skyscrapers and new cars are everywhere, and in the rural areas bigger and better homes are built for the farmers who sell to those whose wages rapidly improve in the private industries. The Chinese got a bit freedom to work, buy and sell, and they created double-digit growth rates and reduced extreme poverty from 64 to 17 percent in 20 years. It is a stunning development.

But it´s also impossible to ignore potential risks. I have rarely met a more obvious sign of a real estate bubble than when my taxi driver explained that he owns four flats to speculate on increasing prices. Massive resources created by entrepreneurs have gone into government overinvestments in construction. And the banks are burdened with enormous bad loans to inefficient state-owned enterprises in the northern provinces. A financial crisis does not seem unlikely, and how the undemocratic system would deal with such difficulties is another mystery. As long as China´s political and legal system is not as open as the economy, China will remain a risky and unpredictable place.